Where are we at with global trade talks?

Trade talks...trade talks...trade talks. 

Negotiations between the U.S. and almost every major economy continue to grab the headlines in the world of international trade.  This week in particular has been one full of talk, but details on definitive outcomes we are yet to see.  This week we’ve seen a focus on: 

• U.S. and China negotiations 

• U.S. and UK negotiations to formalise the Economic Prosperity Deal. 

  
  

Also, with time ticking by, we thought it would be useful to quickly look at President Trump’s imposed deadline of 9th July and the impact this could have on global reciprocal tariffs.  

U.S. & China: 

Earlier this week, representatives from both America and China met in London to discuss terms for an agreement which would hopefully see an end (or at least a pause) to the ongoing trade wars and rising friction.  

Late on Tuesday we heard that an agreement had been reached and was now to be put in front of both Presidents for final agreement.  This was followed by Trump taking to social media to say a “deal with China is done” and that it was a “great deal”. 

However, the publicly known details of the deal, which is being referred to as a framework, are so slim it might as well be referred to as non-existent.   There are conflicting reports on both sides, and we wait to see to what extent this agreement deals with both parties' major concerns, which generally revolve around critical minerals, semi-conductors and the exporting of other technology. 

U.S. & UK: 

It seems over the last week or two that news on the formalisation of the UK-U.S. deal has gone quiet.  We’re suddenly over a month after the initial announcement on 8th May and there are growing calls from a number of industries for an update on proceedings and for the agreement, and crucially additional details, to be announced and released soon.  

We may now though actually be getting close.  A number of news outlets reported The Business & Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds saying this week that “we’re ready to go” with the potential for a firmer update by the end of this week.  

Significant concerns regarding the deal have been raised by the ethanol industry.  While car, steel and aluminium manufactures are still waiting on the additional detail needed to determine how they will utilise the agreement and how relevant quotas will be implemented.  

U.S. and the Rest of the World: 

The U.S. remains very busy as we continue to edge closer to President Trump’s deadline of the 9th July.  As a recap, the President suspended the reciprocal tariffs for a period of 90 days to allow countries and trading blocs the opportunity to negotiate individual agreements with the U.S..  However, to date, only the UK and (potentially) China has announced such an agreement.   

This will leave a lot of businesses, and indeed countries, trying to second-guess what steps and action Trump will take from 9th July.  Right now, probably the most likely option is we’ll see various responses depending on how negotiations are ongoing between the U.S. and that particular trading partner.   

However, at the moment who knows and, in reality, is there any chance of anyone being completely certain of what the President will do next?   

We’ll just have to play the waiting game.